Friday Morning Monologue

Rough weather in a lot of the country. Ice storms in the Northeast, cold snap in the Midwest. In fact, it was so cold in Chicago, Gov. Blagojevich actually had his hands in his own pockets. Over 300,000 people lost power in the Northeast after ice storms knocked the power out. Hard times here in Flawda too — it almost dipped under 75 degrees today. The weather was so bad in Washington, people were throwing snow shoes at President Bush. They're finding out a lot about the guy who threw the shoes at President Bush. He's reported to be a hothead with poor journalistic skills. No surprise — today he was offered his own show on Fox News. Dubya says he's actually happy about the incident. He says it just proves Iraq has footwear of mass destruction. The President told reporters that the shoe-throwing incident was one of the weirdest moments of his presidency. D ubya said the only thing weirder was the time he got re-elected. I was amazed at how nimble Dubya was. I know he's got a lot of dodging experience from the Vietnam War, but this was pretty slick. Some people are criticizing the Secret Service because the shoe-thrower caught them offguard, and the man was able to throw a second shoe. A spokesman for the Secret Service said, "Sorry, but we were laughing our asses off." The guy who threw the shoes is now a hero in Iraq. They say he's shown the world that Iraqis have no masters, but I think what he really has shown the world is that Iraqis have no aim. A big surprise in last Sunday's morning news — Sen. John McCain says he may not support Sarah Palin if she's around in 2012. Of course the bigger question is, will McCain be around in 2012? Yesterday, Dick Cheney was interviewed by ABC News and he reflected on his eight years in office. Then he turned into a bat and disappeared in a puff of smoke. The economy is killing me. I just got a new American Express card, and as I'm about to sign it, I see a line that says, "Good through Thursday." A report just out says that the economic downturn is even affecting prostitution. If things get any worse, men may be forced to have sex with their wives. That prostitution joke actually was from the Great Depression in the 1930s. That was the joke that got America back on its feet. Adios ameobas!

Henry Gould, Realty Associates

HAPPY HOLIDAYS EVERYONE!

Send your own ElfYourself eCards

The Bailout reaches Deerfield Beach!

This past Wednesday, I was“Locked Up” by the Muscular Dystrophy Association to help raise funds to find treatments and cures for the 43 neuromuscular diseases MDA covers. My “bail” goal is $3,000 and I could really use your help. No amount is too small and EVERY amount brings us closer to finding lifesaving cures.
To make a donation to my bail right now please click on the link below:
https://www.joinmda.org/dbholidaylockup/joe

or to donate with a check, please send a check made out to MDA to:
Muscular Dystrophy Association
1280 SW 36th Avenue, Ste. 303
Pompano Beach, FL 33069
To donate with a credit card by phone, call the MDA office at 954-971-0123

MDA IS HELP
- MDA Summer Camp - Each year MDA supports nearly 90 summer camps across the country. MDA Camp is a magical place where year-round skills are developed and where a child with a disability can just be a kid.
- Clinics - Through some 225 hospital-affiliated clinics, MDA offers quality medical care from doctors, nurses and therapists experienced in dealing with neuromuscular diseases.
- Equipment – MDA provides assistance with purchases and repairs of leg braces, wheelchairs, and communications devices to help our members to enhance mobility and independent living.

MDA IS HOPE
- Research - MDA is the world's largest non-governmental sponsor of research seeking the causes of and effective treatments for neuromuscular diseases, sponsoring some 400 research projects annually.
- Clinical Trials - Clinical trials are experiments conducted to determine the value of a potential treatment, such as a drug, dietary supplement or exercise program.

Are 4.5% rates in sight?

The brain trust in Washington thinks that driving rates down will stimulate a rebound. Read on...
http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n1-120408.cfm

WHAT ARE YOU THANKFUL FOR?

This Thanksgiving has really got me thinking about what I am thankful for! As you know being in Real Estate this past 3 years has been a real challenge for me! Many times I have felt like just giving up but it is because of people like you that I have not. I love what I do and feel wonderful when I can help someone. I have always maintained that if I put my customers first I would make it. I have been in this business for 8 years here in Florida and for the first 5 years I worked for developers selling high end custom homes. The money was great and I had a lot of fun but it was not until getting into my own business that I really learned how gratifying my job can be. In June of this year I was contacted by a waitress that I had worked with who was ready to buy her first home. She is in her late forties and has struggled to raise her kids as a single mom. She had no credit and very little money to put down. Joe went to work and got her pre-qualified through a FHA program for $100,000 with only 3% down. Dana our office manager went to work on building her credit off her cell phone bill. The buyer had very specific criteria because she has a dog and needed 2 bedrooms. Our biggest challenge was that there are not many condos that are FHA approved and the budget was limited. I found her exactly what she wanted but it was listed for more than she qualified, I told the owner her story and her budget and a couple of weeks later she called back to say she would accept my buyers offer. She closed on her first home on Sept 3, 2008 and every time I see her she cries. This was the most gratifying sale of my life. For many years I specialized in high end and my biggest sale was 2.4 million which was pretty awesome. However no amount of money can compare to helping someone who was up against such incredible odds. I love my job!!! Thank you all for your support and referrals throughout the years. I would not be here without you! Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family and May God continue to bless us all!!!!

Ocean Trust Realty, LLC
Ginger Allen-VP

FORECLOSURES IN LIMBO

More good news, or is it just smoke and mirrors? Only time will tell...

Fannie, Freddie put foreclosures, evictions on hold for the holidays

GOT CONDO?

If you follow the mainstream media and believe the talking heads, Miami has been destined to be an economic wasteland because of all the unsold condos under development. But is that the reality of the situation? According to this article, there is reason for optimism. Read on...

Miami condos finding buyers

Don't Buy Into The Doom And Gloom!

Even though the media feeds on disastrous news, there IS good news! Year-to-date, we are up more than 250% over last year!! Three out of every four sales are cash deals, which means that prices have come down far enough to get buyers off the fence. In fact, in many cases, the offers our customers are presenting are competing with multiple other offers. The U.S. investor has gotten soured on the stock market and the smart money is coming back to real estate. Yes, there is more pain to come... but there is also reason for optimism and we anticipate a significant increase in traffic and closings in the upcoming season. Remember, what you focus on expands!

Read the attached article from FAR:
Florida’s existing home sales increase in 3Q 2008

Credit Default Swaps - The Bet That Blew Up Wall St

Watch CBS Videos Online

Existing home sales jump, prices sink

The statistics are even better in Florida! Looks like we're turning the corner...

ARE WE AT THE BOTTOM YET?

Interesting dose of perspective from The Niche Report

Could God Get a Mortgage Today?

Ever deal with FHA?

A New Orleans lawyer sought an FHA loan for a client. He was told the loan would be granted if he could prove satisfactory title to a parcel of property being offered as collateral. The title to the property dated back to 1803, which took the lawyer three months to track down.

After sending the information to the FHA, he received the following reply (actual letter): "Upon review of your letter adjoining your client's loan application, we note that the request is supported by an Abstract of Title. While we compliment the able manner in which you have prepared and presented the application, we must point out that you have only cleared title to the proposed collateral back to 1803. Before final approval can be accorded, it will be necessary to clear the title back to its origin."

Annoyed, the lawyer responded as follows (actual letter):"Your letter regarding title in Case No. 189156 has been received. I note that you wish to have title extended further than the 194 years covered by the present application. I was unaware that any educated person in this country, particularly those working in the property area, would not know that Louisiana was purchased by the U.S. from France in 1803, the year of origin identified in our application."For the edification of uninformed FHA bureaucrats, the title to the land prior to U. S. ownership was obtained from France, which had acquired it by Right of Conquest from Spain. The land came into possession of Spain by Right of Discovery made in the year 1492 by a sea captain named Christopher Columbus, who had been granted the privilege of seeking a new route to India by the then reigning monarch, Isabella. The good queen, being a pious woman and careful about titles, almost as much as the FHA, took the precaution of securing the blessing of the Pope before she sold her jewels to fund Columbus' expedition.

"Now the Pope, as I'm sure you know, is the emissary of Jesus Christ, the Son of God. And God, it is commonly accepted, created this world. Therefore, I believe it is safe to presume that He also made that part of the world called Louisiana. He, therefore, would be the owner of origin. I hope ... you find His original claim to be satisfactory.

"Now, may we have our ... loan?"

They got it.

Good News for Some Homeowners!

HUD just approved a new FHA program that will allow some people to keep their homes; read on...
http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n1-100208.cfm

Bailout Fallout

What's the matter with our leadership in Washington? Why don't they get it? They seem to be more concerned about positioning themselves for re-election, rather than doing what is right for the country. I know that the seeds for this crisis were planted many years ago, and that a solution is not going to be quick or easy, or without pain. That being said, it just appears to me that they are trapped in ideological disagreements over what amount to bandaids for the problem.

Clearly, the crisis exists on a couple of levels: First, citizen and voter distrust of politicians is at an all time high. What we've seen this week with all the posturing, grand standing and finger pointing isn't likely to help that concern. And second, investor psychology is pretty much in panic mode. Most Americans don't understand the relationship between the credit markets and the economy at large. So they believe that any "bailout" is targeted at the fat cats on Wall Street - the rich get richer, or get out of jail free, etc. In reality, the lack of liquidity has gotten so bad, that unless some confidence can be infused back into the market and soon, we are looking at an even longer and much more painful recovery. It is already extremely difficult to get a business loan, and two thirds of our economy is generated by small businesses. As resilient as our economy is, without access to capital, we're in big trouble.

Anybody who works in a real estate or mortgage related business, has gone through 3 pretty tough years - with no clear end in sight. Over the last few months, we have seen some positive signals that are cause for optimism: leveling off of price declines or actual increases, reduction in inventory and a similar reduction in days on market. But if the clowns in Washington don't do something soon and get it right, all bets are off. What do you think? I'd love to hear from you.

'The Dead Guy that God sent home’

To all of my dear friends....

Please take a moment out of your busy, hectic lives and read the attached article...it is not a funny "forward", or political statement...what it is, is a beautiful article which was published last week in a California paper...an article which is based on a talk given by my very dear friend of 21 years, Ret. NYC Firefighter Bobby Senn. Those of us that know Bobby have been blessed by his friendship...the world is truly a better place for having him in it...and we are fortunate that he was spared on that fateful day seven years ago, when terrorists attacked our country...while so many others perished. I know it is a bit long, but please read it all the way through if you can.

Love,
Lorraine

Lorraine DeGeorges
Alexandra's Baskets
Unique Gifts & Gift Baskets for All Occasions
561.542.2653
www.alexandrasbaskets.com

Trulia Speaks to New Yorker's about the $700 Billion Bailout

What's your opinion?

This guy has it all figured out!

If you're a cork dork (wine geek) like me, or just interested in knowing more about wine, Gary is the best to learn from. And he has some pretty funny videos on his site...

Financial Market Turmoil - Is the sky really falling?

Pretty good summary of yesterday's events. Read on...

Good evening. We just experienced one of the most remarkable days in the history of the financial markets. While the 449-point decline of the Dow made headlines, the real story of the day was that bank lending seized up. Today’s events are truly astounding:

The Fed famously left the “target” Fed funds rate at 2.00% on Tuesday (The Fed funds rate is the rate at which banks lend to one another). Today in the real world, Fed funds were trading between 6.00% and 8.00%. That means, in the words of one bank CFO, “We’re not lending our money to anybody, even if they are a bank.”

90-day Treasury bills had one of their biggest volume days ever. The yield they were offering? 0.02%. That’s right. Investors were willing to accept 0.02% to park their money in a safe place for 90 days. That’s the lowest yield since World War II.

Swap spreads (the difference between LIBOR and Treasury yields) gapped out. Two-year LIBOR ended the day 1.30% higher than two-year Treasury yields. In 2006, that spread was 0.20%. Spreads are more than 50% higher than the highest levels ever seen. Ever in the history of swap spreads. Today’s move was the biggest in ten years.

All 86 members of the S&P 500 Financials Index declined. The Index fell 8.9% overall and option prices soared to record levels. Goldman Sachs (-14%) and Morgan Stanley (-24%), the only remaining independent brokerages on Wall Street, plunged the most ever.

Russia halted stock trading for a second day and poured $44 billion into its three biggest banks in a bid to halt the worst financial crisis in a decade.

Corporate debt yields rose more than they did during the stock market crash of 1987.

Gold posted it largest one-day price increase in history, reflecting investors’ panic, and their desire for any safe place to hold their wealth.

Fortunately, after a very rough start, mortgages closed the day at higher prices. Liquidity remains very strong in the conforming and government mortgage markets.

Mandatory mortgage trade prices are more than 50bps higher than best efforts prices, near the widest spreads that we have ever seen.

The spread between mortgage and Treasury yields had a wild day. This morning, mortgage yields rose 0.30% more than Treasury yields, but a bid came in to the mortgage market late in the day, and spreads closed the day mostly unchanged at 2.60%. Mortgage rates are low, and lock volume is very strong. Maybe we’ll have a refinance boom after all.

Experts say we're going through what's known as a lock, stock and barrel financial phase. You know what that is, and how that works? People are locked out of their homes, their stocks are worthless, and the oil companies have us over a barrel. That's how it works. -- Jay Leno

Thanks for your business. -- Tom Millon

About Capital Markets CooperativeCapital Markets Cooperative (CMC) provides mortgage bankers with the economies of scale and the expertise to reduce risk and maximize profit in the secondary market. Regarded as the premier secondary marketing specialist in the industry, CMC has worked with financial institutions nationwide to break traditional barriers in capital markets and take performance and profits to the next level. To date, CMC executives have managed more than $500 billion of mortgage volume. CMC board members are Tom Millon, Jeff Harry, and Harold Koegler. For more information about Capital Markets Cooperative, visit www.capmkts.org or call 904.543.0052 or e-mail info@capmkts.org.

See us featured in Florida Realtor Magazine!

We were fortunate and honored to have been chosen by FAR for a makeover to our blog. Amy Chorew is passionate, excited and knowledgeable. She was a perfect coach and is an invaluable resource for anyone in our business! Thanks Amy! And thanks also to Leslie Stone from Florida Realtor Magazine for making it happen!

She without arm, he without leg - ballet - Hand in Hand

One of the most inspiring and motivational videos you will ever see!

Del Vecchio's - A Great Place to Eat!

Six of us had dinner there last Saturday night, and I have to say that it was spectacular! The menu is heavy on Sicilian and Napolitano comfort food and very well done. The owners, Lou and Belinda Del Vecchio, were ever present, as was the well known Chef Luciano Balzano.



We started with a selection of appetizers and two of them stood out as clear winners. The Clams Oreganato were so fresh and delicate they melted in your mouth like cotton candy. And everyone was using the fresh baked bread to sop up all of the herb garlic oil in the bottom of the serving dish! And Lou's grandmother's meatball and sauce recipe was a crowd pleaser.



Then the Chef sent out a complimentary dish of a new item that he is thinking about adding to the menu. Al dente pappardelle noodles in an "uncooked" tomato sauce. We couldn't get enough! Hopefully, it'll be on the new menu...



At this point, we were already getting pretty full, but when the entrees came out, our appetites miraculously reappeared. Two of us were lucky enough to order the very limited Hog Snapper that the Chef had had specially delivered that day. It came in the Naples style, as a whole fish, swimming in "acqua pazza" or crazy water - a very flavorful and delicate fish broth. I had the other special, Osso Bucco over Saffron Risotto, and it was to die for. The meat just fell off the bone and the risotto was aromatic and a perfect complement.



Believe it or not, we actually had room for dessert, so we enjoyed a selection of Tiramisu, Sfogliatelle and mini Cannolis with Lou's homemade Grappa. Unlike most, Lou's Grappa was smooth, refined and perfumed - a perfect accompaniment to the sweets and a terrific way to end the evening!

Del Vecchio's Italian Fishery is no longer the best kept secret in Deerfield Beach. They're getting a lot of buzz in the local community, so be sure to call ahead for a reservation. Trust me, you won't be disappointed!

Pending home sales index rises 5.3% in June

Interesting dialogue regarding the latest NAR stats. Worth a read...

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b45D708B4-CD32-40F4-9603-232B3B9DF723%7d&siteid=nbih#comments

Joe Hillner

Pending home sales jump 6.3% in April!

Index of homes under contract rises to the highest level since October, Realtor group says.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The number of homes under contract to be sold rose unexpectedly in April as buyers go bargain hunting, according to a report released Monday.
Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) rose to 88.2 in April, up 6.3% from March's reading of 83 and the highest level since October. The increase defied the consensus estimate of economists polled by Briefing.com, who had expected pending sales to fall by 1%.

Despite the increase, April's reading remains down 13.1% from the same period last year, and down 29% from the index's peak in April 2005. The Pending Home Sales index debuted in 2001, and a reading of 100 is equal to results that first year.

"Bargain hunters have entered the market en masse, especially in areas that have experienced double-digit price declines, but it's unclear if they are investors or owner-occupants," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR in a statement. The Pending Home Sales Index was strongest in the Midwest, where it jumped 13%, and weakest in the Northeast, where it declined 1.9% The positive report indicates that the decline in home sales may be starting to slow. "Existing home sales have started to form what looks like a bottom," said Adam York, an economist with Wachovia Corp.

However, one bullish report hardly signals the resurgence of the battered housing market. "You have to see a stability in prices and inventory before you say the market has turned a corner," cautioned Asha Bangalore, economist with Northern Trust Co. The trade group's Pending Home Sales Index is considered a more forward-looking indicator of home sales than the NAR's closely watched existing home sales report. Unlike existing home sales estimates, pending home sales are usually counted a month or two before a closing sales contract is signed.

Homes are biggest bargain since 2004!

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- With prices crashing around the nation, home price affordability has improved dramatically in many U.S. cities.

As a result, 53.8% of all new and existing homes sold nationwide during the first three months of 2008 were affordable to families earning the median household income of $61,500, according to the latest Housing Opportunity Index released Tuesday by Wells Fargo and the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

That's up from 44% during the first three months of 2007 with home prices the most affordable they've been since the three month period that ended June 30, 2004.

"Three factors combined to substantially increase housing affordability," said NAHB president, Sandy Dunn, in a press release accompanying the report. "Mortgage rates returning to near the record low levels of a few years ago, a $2,500 rise in family income nationwide (from 2007 to 2008) and lower house prices."

Home prices dropped about 8% compared with a year ago, according to NAHB, but that doesn't mean that buyers are flocking back to the market. "This measure can only take you so far in implications for the market," said Dave Seiders, NAHB's chief economist. "There're several factors that the index does not capture."

These include buyer expectations. Many are reluctant to act in falling markets. That sentiment can contribute to market overshoot, according to Seiders, in which prices fall lower than would be their logical bottom.

Richard DeKaser, who, as chief economist for national City Corp., runs his own affordability studies, pointed out that three main factors influence housing market trends: demographics, like more families moving into an area attracted by jobs; sentiment, the perception that the housing market is a good investment at any point in time; and affordability.

"While affordability is an important factor that will contribute to recovery of housing markets eventually," he said, "improved affordability is unlikely to lift markets out on its own."

Consumers Ogling Home Prices

More good news!

The percentage of consumers who believe homes are attractively priced has increased to a record high even as concerns about higher prices for other items has dropped overall consumer confidence to lows not seen since the early 1980s, according to a University of Michigan index. "Buying conditions for homes improved, reversing much of the decline registered in March, as a record-high 58% of respondents felt that prices were low and good buys were available (interestingly, borrowing costs and credit conditions were viewed less negatively)," said RBS Greenwich Capital strategist Michelle Girard in a report on the university's consumer sentiment index.

If you're thinking about making a purchase, it probably makes sense to stay ahead of the curve.  It won't be long before buyers start flooding back into the market and prices jump...

JH

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Buyers Getting Serious

We are seeing a dramatic change in the South Florida real estate market of late.  Prices in Palm Beach County have RISEN two months in a row – that's right, risen.  Of the last five purchase deals Ocean Trust has closed, four of them have been cash contracts, and three of those were for $1MM or more!  On the finance side, appraised values have been coming in OVER contract price. 

In the broader market, we are seeing volatility and upheaval.  The US dollar is weak against the Canadian dollar and the Euro.  More and more lenders are cooperating with realtors in negotiating short sales.  The stock market is going through very turbulent times.

What does all this mean?  It may be too soon to say that the downturn is over and that the real estate market will return to a more normal market.  But these are significant events and, I believe, reasons for optimism.  In SoFl, what I think that we are seeing is the early signs that the "smart money" is coming back.  With sellers now pricing property realistically and banks getting ready to unload their REO, combined with still historically low interest rates, this year we will see serious buyers taking advantage of opportunities that may never be seen again.

JH

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Featured Properties

$949,000

5 Bed, 4 Bath

Delray Beach, FL 33446

Property Type: Single Family Home

This was the FIRST POST to the blog.